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Actually, the bottom of the ACC is much better this year than last. BC is the lowest right now at 154, whereas you had 3 teams well below that last year (BC was a ridiculous 245). So while we had one of the most difficult conference schedules in 11-12 (and the easiest this year), it's not like we're playing a bunch of poison cupcakes. The extra 2 games, even against your "average" ACC team, will also help offset some of the OOC games (Lamar and ODU are sub 320 this year, whereas both were in the top 115 in 11-12...amazing declines). We have moved up about 80 RPI spots in the 1st 7 games of conference play! The average ACC team (and remember Miami and Duke didn't have much room to make significant jumps) has moved up almost 20 places in RPI since the beginning of conference play. The league-wide ascent will continue to happen (although not as drastic on a per game basis) in the final 11 games, as everyone continues to play ACC teams, while teams in poorer RPI conferences (all but the BE, B1G and Mountain West) continue to have their SOS component dragged down. The RPI forecast that everyone seems to be using is flawed because it doesn't take the general league-wide ascent into account. In fact, it has the league aggregate expected RPIs 11 games from now to be exactly the same as the current RPIs. This is clearly incorrect, and supports the notion that if we go 11-7 in conference play (6-5 over our last 11 games) we will be significantly better than the forecasted RPI, and a virtual shoe-in for the tournament.
As far as what we should root for from here on out, every win by an OOC opponent (and ours have performed poorly thus far) helps. Sometimes, 1 win will effect the live RPI as much as 3 or 4 spots, which goes to show how flawed the system is. In conference, Wake is the only bottom feeder we play once. Here's to them losing all the rest of their games.
Also, if we assume we achieve a given amount of wins (say 11-7), for RPI purposes it will not matter whom we beat. If you beat Duke but lose to BC, it's the same as beating BC and losing to Duke. The only thing it might matter for is some sort of "quality wins" component used by the committee, which is why assuming a static record, I probably would trade a BC win for a Duke win.
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by jaylamp 14 months ago
Under 10, enjoy the nit...seriously could win the damn thing
10-8 were sweating hard
11-7 were sweating a little
12-6 who and where are we playing
I must break you!
10-8 in this year's ACC and there will be no reason to sweat given the horrible OOC losses.
I think this is a good way of looking at it...but there's the ACC tourney also...0, 1, or 2 wins in the tourney factor in the same way. 11-7 +1 ACC win and we should be in...10-8 and 2 wins would still make it tough etc...wouldn't want to be 12-6 and lose in the opening round to a lousy team either...
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