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I don't care very much about the next DC. As long as Mike London is our head coach, the defense will be solid.
Figured I would throw out one more stat out there to put the whole defense in context when combining the positive aspects of excellent 3rd down conversion percentages allowed, lack of explosive plays allowed (we were close to top-10 nationally, I believe, in 20+, 30+, 40+ plays allowed), and yardage defense combined with the negatives of a lack of forced turnovers and high points allowed: the S&P+ produced by Football Outsiders. S&P+ uses a play-by-play analysis of every play over the football season, compares success of plays by each team with an expected success rate, and then determines whether a team or unit - in the case of defense - has limited opponent success more or less than expected, then adjusts for strength of opponents. Note: 100 is average; over 100 is better, and under 100 is worse.
So with some intro out of the way, our numbers with Reid versus the end of the Groh era:
Reid (2012): 56th, 99.2, 44th run, 65th pass
Reid (2011): 42nd, 107.9, 40th run, 52nd pass
Reid (2010): 98th, 89.0, 109th run, 81st pass
Pre-Reid (2009): 31st, 111.1, 55th rush, 22nd pass
Pre-Reid (2008): 46th, 105.7, 54th rush, 59th pass
Pre-Reid (2007): 34th, 111.6, 31st rush, 49th pass *London was DC*
Pre-Reid (2006): 24th, 114.1, 46th rush, 31st pass *London was DC*
Pre-Reid (2005): 82nd, 93.1, 86th rush, 86th pass
For Tenuta, I have information on his two years at ND and his last 3 years at GT:
2009 (ND): 61st, 97.5, 41st rush, 70th pass
2008 (ND): 47th, 105.4, 61st rush, 45th pass (48th the year prior)
2007 (GT): 56th, 102.7, 70th rush, 65th pass
2006 (GT): 8th, 129.2, 7th rush, 17th pass
2005 (GT): 14th, 122.9, 11th rush, 21st pass
Edit: 100 is average; over 100 is better, and under 100 is worse. I don't know what other context to put into that number since it isn't really a percentage but a formula taking into account opponent strength, but my interpretation of the numbers are that a defense with a 125 rating is approximately 25% better at preventing efficient opponent offense (if that makes sense). I think that general idea holds up well, as only about 10 teams fall more than 25% over or under that 100 average.
Was hoping for a bit more clarity after going through that, but if we assume that Tenuta's record at GT from 2002-04 is not that far off from where it was in 2005 and 2006 (the coaching staff was notified mid-season of a pending change in 2007, making that sub-par number perhaps less indicative of an overall trend), and also note that 2 of the 3 best defenses at UVA in the Groh / London eras have come with London as DC, then the combination of London and Tenuta may be workable - especially since their philosophies are similar with a fairly aggressive blitz and man cover strategy. I'm sort of willing to give Tenuta a pass on the ND years, since that program was a mess throughout the 2000s and during the years when Tenuta were there ND was a mostly offense and worry about defense later kind of unit - think the Brady Quinn years.
Overall, while there may potentially be "better" hires out there, perhaps especially when recruiting is considered, I don't think Tenuta would be a bad hire (and we have other assistants on staff to carry the recruiting load anyway). In fact, it may even be a very good one. One concern would be the length of time it has been since either London or Tenuta have had control over a full defense - but when that is contrasted with the talent on our back end and line, which may very well suit the man-cover and pressure blitzing preferred by Tenuta, especially given our speed on the edges and improving interior D-line talent and the cover abilities of our corners which may be better utilized given their increased experience compared to last year, I do think the positives outweigh the negatives.
My overall take - while there may be others with potentially more upside than Tenuta, the hire - if made - should be relatively safe and lead to an overall improvement on defense. If ST and the offense can keep up a bit - and we have plenty of talent to do so and what appears to be a competent ST coordinator coming in - we might even be able to flip our record or something close to it sooner than some would expect.
This post was edited by fijivr4 16 months ago
You should really post more, fiji.
Thanks for the analysis.
Thanks Jamie (and others) - usually others beat me to the punch for quicker thoughts but I like to put together some longer stuff every now and again.
Unrelated, but does anyone see Nicholson turning into a nickel corner his senior year? Canada will be a junior and starting and Tim Harris/Corporan plus the younger guys will be sophomores at least.
He really struggled with run support and picking up the ball in flight. I hope this offseason he can gain more weight.
With all of the comments (maybe even hints) about Tenuta over the past several weeks from Jamie, I'd be absolutely shocked if Tenuta (if he wants the job) isn't the next DC at UVA.
Great post, but what do the numbers mean? Is greater than 100 better or worse? What does the first, second, third and fourth columns mean? I'm a bit perplexed.
I edited the original, but will add that here...100 is average; over 100 is better, and under 100 is worse. I don't know what other context to put into that number since it isn't really a percentage but a formula taking into account opponent strength, but my interpretation of the numbers are that a defense with a 125 rating is approximately 25% better at preventing efficient opponent offense (if that makes sense). I think that general idea holds up well, as only about 10-15 teams fall more than 25% over or under that 100 average each season. Also, the expected teams - Stanford, LSU, Alabama, Florida, ND, and Stanford are 6 of the top 7, so the numbers seem to match up with perception.
As for the last two columns, they are breakdowns of efficiency rankings for rushing and passing defense. I didn't include the ratings since that would have made the chart much harder to read.
I agree with the weight part...but, he was very good at picking the ball up in flight, as evidenced by the vast amount of passes defensed. He can work on his run support, but I think he really only did very poorly against Duke Johnson. All in all, he was our most consistent DB.
This post was edited by VBHoo24 16 months ago
Keep hitting us with these haymakers, my man. Great stuff.
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